A Birds Eye review of the state of Islamic Agriculture Finance in 2020

https://www.islamicfinancenews.com/a-birds-eye-view-of-global-islamic-agricultural-financing.html?access-key=6b73e3e68e1204087db8f566beb01d57

The original article first published in Islamic Finance News can be found at the above link

The IFN guide is found at the link below

https://www.islamicfinancenews.com/

Investing in the Stock Market safely

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TAX UPDATE 02/2020 ACE Group of Companies

RESIDENTIAL RENTAL INCOME

The following key pointers are important for you to ensure you comply with the MRI regulations from the onset and avoid the penalties and interest that come with non-compliance.

1. MRI is a tax payable by resident persons on residential rental income received.

It is payable by property owners whose residential rent income is Kshs. 12,000 per month (Kshs 144,000 per year) to Kshs. 10 million per annum.

2. The rate of tax is 10% on the gross rent income received. No expenses are allowed for deduction.

3. MRI returns are filed monthly through the iTax portal, on or before the 20th of the following month.

For example Rent received in January is declared and tax paid on or before 20th February.

4. Where there is no rent income received in a given month, you are required to file a NIL return for that month.

5. MRI is a final tax and therefore rental income declared under MRI shall not be declared under the annual return.

6. Late filing of MRI returns attracts a penalty of:

a. Kshs. 2,000 or 5% of the tax due whichever is    higher for individuals.

b. Kshs. 20,000 or 5% of the tax due whichever is higher for corporates

7. Late payment penalty is 5% of the tax due while late payment interest is 1% per month.

FRINGE BENEFIT TAX

For the purposes of Section 12B of the Income Tax Act, the Market Interest Rate is 7%. This rate shall be applicable for the three months of January, February and March 2020.

DEEMED INTEREST RATE

For purposes of section 16(5), the prescribed rate of interest is 7%. This is applicable for the months of January, February and March 2020.

Withholding tax rate of 15% on the deemed interest shall be deducted and paid to the Commissioner by 20th of the month following the month of computation.

LOW INTEREST BENEFIT

For the purposes of section 5(2A) of the Income Tax Act, the prescribed interest rate for the period of six months covering January-June 2020 shall be 7%.

Contact Infromation;

Mombasa (Head Office):

Rashid Ahmed Lootah Road, 3rd Floor, Ace House

Telelphone: 0727399199

Nairobi

TRV Towers, Suite 7F, 3rd Parklands

Telephone: 0707688699

Eldoret

2nd Floor, Oloo Steet, Opposite Nandi Plaza.

Email contact                     acemsa@acegroup.co.ke info@acegroup.co.ke       Website: http://www.acegroup.co.ke

TAX ALERT 01/2020 ACE Group of Companies

TURNOVER TAX (TOT)

Turnover tax was re-introduced in the Finance Act 2019 effective 1st January 2020 with similar regulations previously applied.

Notable changes are;

  1. Monthly submission of the TOT returns by 20th of the following month.
  2. Presumptive tax is still applicable in addition to the TOT
  3. Presumptive tax can be claimed as a credit against TOT payments.

Previous regulations include;

  • 3% TOT on gross turnover. No expenses deductible.
  • Gross turnover should not exceed 5 million a year.
  • TOT does not apply to Limited Companies, Employment Income, Management Income, Professional Income, Rental Income and VAT registered individuals’ or businesses with  over 5m turnover a year.
  • Commissioner approval is required to remain in the normal income tax regime.
  • Late submission penalty – Kshs. 5,000 for each month.

PRESUMPTIVE TAX (PT)

Presumptive tax remains at 15% of the single business permit.

Notable changes as a result of the Finance Act 2019;

  1. PT is no longer a final tax.
  2. PT can be claimed as a credit against TOT payable.

Previous regulations that are still effective;

  • Payable by individuals to whom a business permit or a trade license is issued by the County Government.
  • Payable at the time of payment for the County Government business permit or trade license.
  • Commissioner approval is required to remain in the normal income tax regime.
  • PT does not apply to Limited Companies, Employment Income, Management Income, Professional Income, Rental Income and VAT registered individuals’ or businesses with  over 5m turnover a year.
  • Late submission penalty – 5% of the PT due.

FINANCE ACT – SUMMARY OF TAX CHANGES

  • Income earned by individual in the Ajira Programme is exempt from tax for first three years on set criteria.
  • The amount withdrawn from the National Housing Development Fund to purchase a house by a contributor who is a first-time home owner is exempt from tax
  • The amount of affordable housing relief shall be 15% of the employee’s contribution but shall not exceed KES 108,000 per annum.
  • Plastics recycling plant will be entitled to a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for the first five years upon commencement of its operations.
  • Import Declaration Fee (IDF) to 3.5% of the customs value of goods imported for home use.
  • IDF reduced to 1.5% on customs value of raw materials imported by manufacturers, approved imports by the CS and input for construction of homes under the affordable housing scheme approved by CS.
  • Railway Development Levy (RDL) from 1.5% to 2% of the customs value of goods imported for home use.
  • Withholding VAT reduced to 2%.
  • Non-registered persons importing taxable services will now be required to account for reverse VAT.

Excise Duty rate changes

Excise Duty rate changes – Other items (Sin Tax)

INDIVIDUAL TAXATION

A person is considered to be tax resident in Kenya if they:

  • have a permanent home in Kenya and were present in Kenya for any period in a particular year of income under consideration, or
  • do not have a permanent home in Kenya but were:
    • present in Kenya for 183 days or more in that year of income, or
    • Present in Kenya in that year of income and in each of the two preceding years of income for periods averaging more than 122 days in each year of income.

Individual Tax Bands and Rates

 Monthly Pay Bands-1st January 2018Annual Pay Bands-1st January 2018Rate of Tax
1     –       12,2981 – 147,58010%
12,299   – 23,885147,581- 286,62315%
23,886   – 35,472286,624 – 425,66620%
35,473   – 47,059425,667 – 564,70925%
Above 47,060Above 564,71030%
Personal Tax Relief
1,408.0016,896.00 
  • Residential rental income – 10% of gross residential rental income received payable monthly before the 20th of the following month. Annual gross residential rental income should not exceed 10 million shillings.
  • Life, health and education relief is 15% of the premium paid but cannot exceed Kshs. 60,000 p.a
  • Affordable housing tax relief – 15% of gross emoluments at a maximum of Kshs. 108,000 p.a (Starts at time of application and awaiting allocation of a house under the affordable housing scheme)
  • Mortgage interest on owner occupied house at a maximum amount of Kshs. 300,000 p.a is deductible
  • Gratuity and payments to a registered pension scheme is deductible to a maximum of Kshs. 240,000 p.a but cannot exceed 30% of the emoluments.
  • Home ownership savings plan – Contributions not exceeding Kshs. 96,000 p.a are deductible.
  • Bonuses and overtime paid to low income earners is tax free.
  • Kshs. 2,000 per day allowance for travelling for an individual outside his normal place of work is tax free.

TAXABLE EMPLOYEE BENEFITS

  • Motor vehicles benefit taxed at 2% of the cost of the vehicle or the prescribed rate; whichever is higher.
  • Telephone and mobile is taxed at 30% of cost to employer
  • Furniture – 1% of the cost to the employer
  • Housing – higher of market rate or actual rent paid or 15% of total employee income.
  • Employee loans are subject to Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT)

MONTHLY NHIF CONTRIBUTIONS

Changes in NHIF Regulations;

  • Limit cover to a maximum of one spouse and five children
  • New members will have to wait for 90 days before accessing services or benefits in addition to making a one year upfront payment within the 90 days waiting period.
  • Late payment of contributions will attract a fine of 50% of the monthly contribution and a requirement to pay one year in advance. Benefits and services will be restricted for a period of 30 days.
  • Defaulting for more than 12 months will require re-registration and benefits and services can only be accessed after 90 days of resuming payments. A one year upfront payment will be required.
  • Access to specialized services shall be restricted to a 6 months waiting period following card maturity for new members.
  • Access to maternity benefit will be restricted to 6 months waiting period following card maturity for both principal members and spouse declared.
  • Any dependent declared after registration shall be subject to the 6 month waiting period for specialized and maternity services.
  • For inpatient and medical outpatient, additional dependents will be eligible for the benefit apply after 30 days waiting period. Same applied for a change of spouse.
  • Government funded programmes like free maternity, health insurance subsidy, elderly persons with severe disabilities and Inua Jamii have been exempted from this changes.

Contact Infromation;

Mombasa (Head Office):

Rashid Ahmed Lootah Road, 3rd Floor, Ace House

Telelphone: 0727399199

Nairobi

TRV Towers, Suite 7F, 3rd Parklands

Telephone: 0707688699

Eldoret

2nd Floor, Zion Mall.

Telephone: 0707688699

Email contact                    acemsa@acegroup.co.ke info@acegroup.co.ke   Website: http://www.acegroup.co.ke

ISTISNA – BUY, BUILD, MANUFACTURE FINANCING

Introduction 

Istisna’ is a sale transaction where a commodity is transacted before it comes into existence. It is an order to a manufacturer/contractor to manufacture/construct a specific commodity/asset for the purchaser. 

The manufacturer uses his own material to manufacture the required goods.

In Istisna’, the price must be fixed with the consent of all parties involved. All other necessary specifications of the commodity must also be fully settled upon.

Cancellation of contract

After giving prior notice, either party can cancel the contract before the manufacturing party has begun its work. Once the work starts, the contract cannot be cancelled unilaterally.

Istisna and Salam are closely related as both do not need to have the subject matter in existence at the time of the signing of the contract. However, there some differences which are explained below. 

Difference between Istisna’ and Salam

 Istisna

1) The subject-matter must be an item that is to be made or built

manufactured.

2) The price does not necessarily have to be paid in advance and in full. It need not necessarily be paid in full at delivery either. It may be deferred to any mutually agreed date or even paid in instalments.

3) The time of delivery does not have to be fixed.

 4) The contract may be cancelled unilaterally before the manufacturer begins the work.

Salam

1) The subject-matter may be anything that may or

may not need manufacturing.

2) The price has to be paid in advance and in full.

3) The time of delivery is an essential part of the

contract.

4) The contract cannot be cancelled unilaterally.

 Furthermore, Istisna and Ijarah tul Ashkhaas, are also closely related, as this type of lease agreement, is a build/make using labour and then to lease contract.

Differences Between Istisna’ and Ijarah tul Ashkhaas

Istisna

 1) The manufacturer uses his own material or obtains it to make the ordered goods.

2) The purchaser has a right to reject the goods upon inspection as Shariah permits the buyer who has not seen the goods to cancel the sale after seeing them. The right of rejection only exists if the goods do not conform to the specifications agreed between the parties at the time of the contract.

Ijarah tul Ashkhaas

1) The customer provides the material, and the manufacturer uses only his labour and skill, i.e. his services are hired for a specified fee.

2) The right to reject goods upon inspection does not exist.

Time of Delivery

As pointed out earlier, it is not necessary for Istisna’ that the time of delivery is fixed. However, the purchaser may fix a maximum time for delivery which means that if the manufacturer delays the delivery after the appointed time, he will not be bound to accept the goods or to pay the price. 

To ensure that the goods are delivered within the specified period, some modern agreements of this nature contain a penalty clause to the effect that in case the manufacturer delays the delivery after the appointed time, he shall be liable to pay a penalty which shall be calculated on a daily basis. Can such a penal clause be inserted in a contract of Istisna’ according to Shariah? Although the classical jurists seem to be silent about this question while they discuss the contract of Istisna’, yet they have allowed a similar condition in the case of Ijarah. They say that if a person hires the services of a person to stitch his clothes, the fee may be variable according to the time of delivery. The hirer may say that he will pay Kshs. 100/- in case the tailor stitches the clothes within one day and Kshs. 80/- in case he prepares them after two days. Based on the same analogy, the price in Istisna’ may be tied up with the time of delivery. It will be permissible if it is agreed between the parties that in the case of delay in delivery, the price shall be reduced by a specified amount per day.

Istisna’ as a mode of financing

Istisna’ could be used as a mode of financing in the following ways:

House Financing or infrastructure Construction Project

Istisna’ may be used to provide financing for house financing/infrastructure construction project financing. Istisna’ may also be used for similar projects like installation of an air conditioning plant in the client’s factory, building a bridge or a highway etc.

If the borrower owns a piece of land and seeks financing for the construction of a house or a construction project, the financier may undertake to construct the house/construction project on the basis of an Istisna’. 

The financier does not have to construct the house or carry out the infrastructure construction himself. He can either enter into a parallel Istisna’ with a third party or hire the services of a contractor do so on the financiers’ behalf. The financier then calculates his cost and fix the price of Istisna’ with his client that allows him to make a reasonable profit over his cost.

The payment of instalments by the client may start right from the day when the contract of Istisna’ is signed by the parties. In order to secure the payment of instalments, the title deeds of the house or land, or any other property of the borrower may be kept by the financier as security until the last instalment is paid by the borrower. 

The financier will be responsible to strictly conform to the specifications in the agreement for the construction of the house or infrastructure project. The cost of correcting any discrepancy would have to be borne by him.

BOT (Built, Operate and Transfer) agreements may be formalized through an Istisna’ agreement as well. So, if the government wants to build a highway, it may enter into an Istisna’ contract with the builder. The price of Istisna’ maybe the right of the builder to operate the highway and collect Toll Taxes for a specific period.

Istina for financing working capital of a manufacturer

Istisna’ can also be used for financing the working capital requirements of a manufacturer. The bank will order the manufacturer to manufacture certain specified goods and pay the Istisna’ price to the customer. Upon manufacturing the goods, the customer will deliver the goods to the bank.

After taking possession of the goods, the buyer will sell the goods in the market at the same price. For this purpose, the bank may sell the goods directly or may appoint the same agent (including the customer) to sell their goods in the market.

Working Capital Financing Using Istisna

An Islamic Bank can also finance the Working Capital requirements of the Company through the mode of Istisna’ in the following manner.

i) When a customer requires funds for fulfilling his working Capital requirements, then the Islamic Bank will place an order to manufacture with the customer to provide finished goods of certain specifications.

ii) After placing the order, the bank may make the payment of the Istisna’ Price lump sum or in installments.

iii) After the finished goods are ready for delivery, the bank would receive the goods from the

customer.

iv) After receiving the goods the bank will sell the goods in the market, either directly or through some agent, to recover its cost price and earn some profit from the transaction.

Uses of Istisna’

• Individual House financing

• Financing of building/ factory / office/commercial building/residential building projects

• BOT (build, operate, transfer) arrangements for public infrastructure like highways, water desalination plants, dams, sewerage disposal plants by Governments

• Construction of buildings, factories and industrial plants

Business Valuation 103 – RELATIVE VALUATION MODELS

When businesses have grown to a size that the ‘rule of thumb’ approach is no longer appropriate, then some form of market-based pricing methodology must be used. The principle here is to find some standard variable within companies which appear to be consistently priced by the capital market. 

As expected, there are a large number of such variables, including annual earnings, sales turnover, book value, fixed asset value, and net worth. The variable to be used depends on the type of company. The three most commonly used in practice are:

  • Price Earnings (P/E) multiples 
  • Market to net worth (Tobin’s Q)
  • Market to book (M/B) value ratios

103.1 Price Earnings Multiples

The price-earnings ratio is calculated as the ratio of the price per share divided by the underlying earnings per share. 

Usually, a company publishes it’s earning per share under a number of different bases: basic earnings per shares which is simply the published earnings divided by the numbers of shares in issue. 

If the company has a number of share options in issue to its employees and directors, then it will also produce a ‘diluted’ earnings per share calculated on the basis that all options are taken up.

Analysts can use different variants of the PE ratio. Some prefer to use a historical PE using the average of quoted figures over the last 12 months. This historical or ‘trailing’ PE ratio is claimed to remove price ‘noise’ (the random fluctuation) from the share price. Other analysts prefer a ‘leading’ PE ratio being the estimate from forecasts of the next twelve months earnings figures.

The magnitude of the PE ratio indicates the degree of volatility attaching to the firm’s earnings stream. A low ratio suggests a low value is being placed on the earnings stream and hence (other things being equal) the higher its volatility and vice versa.

The Challenges to using PE methods

The challenges of using the PE method are as follows:

  • First, it is reliant upon an accounting estimate of earnings. As we outlined earlier, the accounting model makes a number of assumptions about the temporal matching of cash flows to time periods which even though firms may be acting quite consistently in their application of the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) can result in quite different outcomes across and between industries. 
  • Second, is that the model avoids the valuation issue in that it is transferring the problem of valuation to the market in assuming that a benchmark PE say for the market as a whole, or an industrial segment, however, constructed, represents an appropriate price for earnings either across the market or across the industry.  
  • Third, it assumes that the market does in fact value earnings rather than some other aspect of the companies financial output such as dividends, or growth in earnings or indeed risk and the market is an efficient market. 

103.2 Market to net worth (Tobin’s Q)

This particular ratio has an impeccable academic pedigree. It was first proposed by the Nobel Prize-winning economist James Tobin in 1969 and since that time has developed a small but influential following. 

Its principal advantage as a metric is that it would appear to allow us to determine whether a market is over or undervalued. However, its use at the individual stock level is more questionable.

Tobin defined Q as the ratio of total capital value (equity plus debt) to the replacement (or reproduction cost) of all capital market assets. The long-run equilibrium for this ratio is one. Taking this ratio to the firm level:

Following Modigliani and Miller’s proposition 1 that total market capitalisation is the sum of the value of equity and the value of debt, then an ‘equity version of Q can be defined as:

When viewed this way all that Tobin’s Q is saying is that the rate of return the firm generates on the replacement cost of its net assets is equal to the rate of return required by equity investors. To see this, let us assume that the market value of the firm’s equity is the capitalised value of the economic earnings of the business (E):

However, the economic profit of the business is the replacement cost of the firm’s net assets (CR) multiplied by the rate of return on that invested capital (rRC):

As a result, Q becomes:

If Q = 1, then this ratio simply asserts that at long-run equilibrium the rate of return on invested capital must equal the firm’s cost of capital (i.e., the required rate of return on equity) or, to put it another way, the rate of return on new capital invested in firms (the internal rate of return on the capital invested) is equal to the rate of return on existing capital traded in the market (the required rate of return on equity). We have met this concept already in that, in the long run, the net present value of an internal investment is driven down to zero, i.e., the point at which the internal rate of return on the firm’s investments equals the firm’s cost of capital. This is important (even if it is a rather unsurprising result) for reasons we return to when we discuss the problems of estimating the growth rate of the firm. 

To what extent can Tobin’s Q and the implied relationship between equity value and a firm’s net worth be used for prediction purposes?  Smithers and Wright (2000) have conducted studies on the properties of their equity version of Q. They demonstrate that over time, and at the level of the market Q exhibits strong mean reversion. This is what we would expect if at the market level, the internal rate of return on invested capital was markedly different from the prevailing market required rates of return. Firms that earned greater than the market rate would attract investors, and hence their equity prices would rise, and firms earning a lower than the market rate would find their share price falling.  

There is some evidence that Q is also a superior leading indicator for share price changes than either the P/E ratio (where earnings are the fundamental lead indicator) or dividend yield (where dividends are the fundamental lead indicators). In causality tests, Smithers and Wright report that net worth (the fundamental in the Q ratio) has only a 1.4per cent probability of no predictive power, whilst dividends and earnings have 43.8 per cent and 88.6 per cent probability respectively. They also found that net worth only really works as a predictor when used as a ratio with equity value rather than on its own.

In practice, the application of Tobin’s Q invariably relies upon the use of accounting information as a proxy for replacement cost. This leads to a more measurable market to book ratio. 

103.3 Market to book (M/B) value ratios

The market to book ratio is a pragmatic interpretation of Tobin’s Q. This ratio assumes that there is a consistent relationship between market value and the net book value of the firm, or to put it another way that the market prices one Unit (pound, dollar, shilling, dinar, riyal, dirham) of book value in one firm, the same as in another.  

Summary and Conclusion 

Like with all other valuation methods, this method is suited to particular situations and has fundamental assumptions, which need to hold, which would due to market inefficiencies not always hold. Therefore it is an indicative value subject to negotiation. It should be noted that the concept can be applied to the valuation of non-quoted companies too. 

Business Valuation 105 – Contingent Methods of Valuation

The Black and Scholes option pricing theory (OPT) offers a clue as to how the equity in a firm may be valued. Suppose we recognise the fact, that an equity investor in a geared firm with limited liability has a call option on the underlying assets of the firm. In that case, we have, potentially, a method for valuing the business.  

Conceptually this is an influential theory; the use of option pricing methodology in the valuation of a business creates difficulties in estimating the necessary input parameters into the model.  

Using the real options methodology, one approach is to simulate the future cash flows of a firm given realistic current conditions and estimates of the volatility of key input variables. 

With this, we can generate an overall estimate of the future volatility of the business and then using a specified set of assumptions about the terminal value of the company creates an option value for the business. This modelling approach has many refinements but essentially provides both methods and insights into the valuation of all firms that are financed partly by debt and, in particular, highly leveraged, fast-growing start-up companies.

The limits on the value

Traditionally, the value of the firm in the hands of its investors will have a lower limit equal to the break-up value of the firm, less all external claims on the business (the sum of its short and long term liabilities). Generally, it was argued that once the present value of the firm’s future cash flows (when discounted at the equity investors rate of return) falls below this value then it would be rational for the investors to cut their losses, liquidate the firm and salvage what value they could. However, this relatively simple analysis is tempered in the light of options theory. From an options theory perspective, the equity investors in a geared firm have a call option on the value of the firm’s assets over and above the value of the debt. If the value of the assets should fall below the value of the debt then given limited liability the equity investors could put the firm into members’ voluntary liquidation and walk away leaving the debt holders to bear the loss. Thus in a geared firm, the equity value of the business is the value of a call option on the firm’s net assets. In an ungeared firm, the option value does not exist. Thus the value of the firm to the equity investors is simply the present value of the net cash flows anticipated over the lifetime of the business.

This line of reasoning suggests that valuing a firm depends upon the existence of gearing and that the value of the firm is not simply the present value of its assets in current use minus the amount of its outstanding debt. 

If the firm is not geared, the critical numbers are: (i) the realisable value of its assets and (ii) the present value of the firm’s assets in continued use. The greater of these is its equity value. In the presence of gearing the critical numbers are: (i) the present value of the firm’s assets and (ii) the value of the firm’s outstanding debt. The value of the firm, in this case, will be the value of the option to continue in business.  

This perspective on the value of a firm suggests that the following variables are critical:

(i) The present value of the firm’s assets in use. Generally, the greater this value, the greater will be the value of a call on those assets at exercise.

(ii) The value of the outstanding debt (the exercise value of the firm) – generally the lower this value, the more valuable the call becomes until at the limit of zero leverage the call value equals the present value of the firm’s assets in use.

(iii) The term to maturity of the debt – the longer the time, the greater the value of the equity call. 

(iv) The risk-free rate of return used to discount the exercise value multiplied by the probability of exercise. Given the inverse relationship between exercise value and firm value, this would suggest that the higher the rate, the greater the call value. However, this is unlikely to be the case overall given that the present value of the firm’s assets (i) will be determined in part by the discount rate and that this in its turn is partly influenced by the risk-free rate.

(v) The expected volatility of the present value of the firm’s assets, which leads to the somewhat paradoxical result that the higher the uncertainty about future cash flows, the more valuable is the call option on those cash flows.

Valuing the firm as an option

In the more general valuation context, a firm’s equity should not be traded, or we may have reason to believe that the correct valuation is considerably different from that revealed by the share price.  

Schwartz and Moon (2000) developed a procedure for the contingent valuation of equities using option pricing and simulation methods. 

They used as their case study Amazon.com which at that time had been in business for just over three years. The company was still not profitable in the conventional sense but was growing its market and its revenues at a rapid rate. 

In March 1996 the quarterly sales of Amazon.com were $0.875 million. By September 1999 its sales had risen to $355.8 million. Here, in outline, is the procedure Schwartz and Moon followed:

A stochastic model was created of the firm’s revenue-generating process and its cost structure. This model contained a drift term which reflects the expected rate of growth in its revenues and a stochastic period reflecting the degree of uncertainty about that growth rate. The expenditure model reflected not only the company’s fixed and variable cost structure but also the impact of taxation upon the company’s profits. 

Refinements of this stochastic model included a mean-reverting process to the estimated long-run rate of revenue growth as well as a procedure for carrying forward losses for tax purposes from one period to the next.  

A bankruptcy condition was imposed were given a starting amount of cash bankruptcy was defined as the point when the amount of cash and other monetary assets reached zero.

A time horizon was defined for the simulation of the firm’s future cash flows, and a terminal value invoked. In their study, Schwartz and Moon, set the final value as ten times EBITDA. Another approach would be to take the net cash flow figure and to capitalise the following year’s projected earnings at the risk-free rate of return less the terminal growth rate of profits. However, the time horizon should be such that by that time, the equity holder’s option is so far into the money that there is zero default risk.  

A simulation is then undertaken to generate a large number of cash flow paths. In the simulated series of quarterly cash flows for Amazon assuming a starting revenue of £356million per quarter, a growth rate of 11 per cent a quarter and a starting volatility of revenues of 10 per cent per quarter. The factors were built-in, and the firm’s starting balance of cash resources available was assumed to be £200 million.

The key point to note is that a number of the price paths had been generated one of which shows default in period 5. Indeed, depending upon the software used, a model can be built which will permit many hundreds of such price paths to be generated. The model can be refined to reflect a wide range of different circumstances: different patterns of growth and the decline in growth as the firm matures, other cost structures, the correlation between variables, differing tax regimes and different initial conditions. From the simulation, the volatility of the cash-flow projection can then be determined, and the likely default in each time period determined. This volatility, expressed as the standard deviation of the company’s future cash flows, can then be adjusted to a continuous-time basis and a valuation of the options component of the company’s valuation determined.

The challenge with this approach of valuation lies in estimating the initial volatilities of the future revenue growth and, in later variants of the model, the volatilities of future costs. 

Nevertheless, the technique does offer a potential route for valuing companies that are in their early stages of growth and which rely upon substantial investment in intangible assets.